Baseball's Back!

Yes, pitchers and catcher report today, marking the official start of spring training. What better time for all of us to put those Congressional hearings behind us, and for me to make my bold (and probably wrong) predictions for the coming season. Here are my predicted final standings, along with the occasional random comment:

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

Frankly, those top three positions will probably be interchangable, with that trio fighting it out until the last weekend. San Diego's additions this winter tended toward the old and questionable (Jim Edmonds, Randy Wolf, Olmedo Saenz) and will likely be disappointing despite their fearsome pitching. And the Giants just have to many pieces to pick up yet.

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Still the weakest division in baseball. The Cubs should walk away with this one easily.

NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Despite the splashy addition of Johan Santana, I just don't see the Mets having the heart to overtake the Phillies. Meanwhile, the Marlins should put up strong competition for the worst team in the majors.

NL Wild Card: New York Mets

NLDS: Dodgers over Mets, Cubs over Phillies
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers

AL West:
1. Anaheim Angels not of Los Angeles
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

The Mariners made some smart moves this offseason -- look for them to make this a close race with the Angels. The A's and Rangers... eh, not so much.

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

The Tigers look like a juggernaut in the making. Beware. Meanwhile, the Royals have quietly been making some meaningful improvements. It won't be enough to pull them out of the cellar in their division, but look for them to have a better record this year and no longer find themselves in the coversation about the worst team in baseball.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Ugh. My least favorite division in baseball. But still, look for some history to be made here this year -- the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time since 1994 (expect come poor decision making by the junior Steinbrenners) and the Rays making their first-ever finish out of last place. Tampa Bay has some very impressive young studs and although they're inexperienced, they'll still be able to easily top the trainwreck that is the Orioles.

AL Wild Card: Cleveland Indians

ALDS: Tigers over Angels, Red Sox over Indians
ALCS: Tigers over Red Sox

World Series: Tigers over Cubs in 5

I tried to approach these selections objectively and not let my heart be my guide (otherwise my beloved Dodgers would be walking away with the title). Yet somehow I wound up with the 2008 World Series being a rematch of the 1908 fall classic. That much karma (along with Ryan Dempster's preseason prediction) should be enough to make Cubs fans' collective heads explode, but unfortunately for them, I don't see it turning out the same way as last time. Wait 'til next century, guys.

(However, this does give my a chance to plug a really great book I recently read: "Crazy '08: How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnates Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History" by Cait Murphy. I consider it a must-read for anyone who loves baseball, but it has a lot to offer non-fans as well, particularly the eye-opening look at just how different life was in America 100 years ago.)

Time to play ball!

Annual Hall of Fame Speculation.

With the enshrinement today of Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. in the baseball Hall of Fame comes the urge to forecast into the future and guess which current MLB players will eventually join them. So, allow me to be presumptuous enough to do just that. I've tried to be as complete as possible, breaking down the players into three categories (ignoring the ones who will never, ever have any chance of making it).

For the moment, I'm going to ignore all the steroid speculation. With the state of public opinion on the issue changing every year, it's too hard to get a fix on what the BBWA voters will think of any particular player a few years down the road.

The Automatics
These guys have already done all they need to do to deserve to be in the Hall. Right now, they're just playing out the last few years of their careers:
Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, Mariano Rivera, John Smoltz, Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas

The Next Wave
Project their current level of production out just a few more years and (barring catastrophic injury or meteor strike or anything like that), they too will be among the Automatics:
Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Derek Jeter, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Pudge Rodriguez, Johann Santana, Gary Sheffield, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki, Jim Thome

The Wannabes
Sure, they're among the best of their era, but they just don't have enough to push them over the hump and should remain stuck in Steve Garvey-ville (or, Jim Kaat-ville if they're pitchers):
Garret Anderson, Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, J.D. Drew, Adam Dunn, Jim Edmonds, Julio Franco, Eric Gagne, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Luis Gonzalez, Torii Hunter, Kenny Lofton, Magglio Ordonez, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettite, Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner, David Wells, Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito

The Young Guns
Could these youngsters eventually make it? Only time will tell. If they're still producing in 10 years like they are now, look for them in the one of the above three categories:
Erik Bedard, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Scott Kazmir, Russell Martin, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, J.J. Putz, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Grady Sizemore, Mark Texiera, Chase Utley, Justin Verlander, Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, David Wright, Chris Young (the pitcher), Ryan Zimmerman

That's a lot of names. And yet, I have the feeling there's someone I'm missing...